The World Bank has raised its 2027 copper price forecast by 18% to $13,000 a tonne, warning that mine supply constraints and demand from electricity networks, data centres and electric vehicles could keep prices close to record levels even as other industrial commodities weaken.
The revised estimate, published in the bank’s October 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, is only 1.5% below its projected average of $13,200 a tonne for 2026. The upgrade signals that the bank expects the copper market to remain tight beyond this year, despite uneven global demand and uncertainty over trade policy.
The outlook comes as copper inventories have become increasingly concentrated in the United States, leaving buyers in other regions facing tighter availability. A separate analysis by GEM Mining Consulting found that US warehouses held nearly 70% of visible exchange stocks in October, while inventories on the London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange remained below their recent historical average.
The forecast comes amid a sharp divergence between global supply estimates and the availability of copper in major consuming regions. The International Copper Study Group has projected a refined copper surplus of 104,000 tonnes, while Goldman Sachs has estimated a deficit of about 950,000 tonnes outside the United States. The contrasting assessments reflect how trade-driven stockpiling is distorting the distribution of available metal.
US stockpiling deepens regional supply squeeze
The World Bank’s forecast upgrade follows a year of record prices and disrupted supply. Copper averaged $14,104 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange in the third quarter, up 44% from a year earlier, according to market data cited in a recent corporate filing. Prices reached a record $14,797 in September, supported by tight physical availability outside the US and uncertainty over potential American import tariffs.
The tariff threat has redirected substantial volumes into the US. Reuters reported in October that Comex warehouses held roughly 70% of the world’s visible exchange copper stocks, while total US inventories, including metal outside exchange warehouses, were estimated at about 1.6 million tonnes. The price premium that encouraged shipments to America has narrowed, weakening the incentive for further inflows but leaving much of the accumulated metal there.
A separate study by GEM Mining Consulting found that Comex warehouses held 718,000 tonnes in October, representing 69% of visible stocks across Comex, the London Metal Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange. LME and Shanghai inventories combined were 11% below their 2015–2024 average.
The US Commerce Department has yet to announce whether it will impose a 15% tariff on refined copper imports from January 2027, rising to 30% in 2028. The unresolved decision is keeping traders cautious about moving metal back into international markets.
The World Bank expects mine supply growth to remain subdued as Indonesia faces lingering weather-related disruptions and Chile contends with operational constraints and declining ore grades. New mines can take more than a decade to develop, limiting the industry’s ability to respond quickly to higher prices.
Electrification supports demand, but costs threaten producers
Demand is expected to strengthen in 2027 and 2028 as investment expands in electricity grids, data centres and electric vehicles. These industries require substantial quantities of copper, particularly for power transmission, wiring and electrical infrastructure.
The bank expects its metals and minerals price index to rise 25% in 2026 before declining 3.3% next year. Even after that correction, the index would remain 16% above its 2021 peak. Its broader outlook projects overall commodity prices rising 23% this year before falling 7% in 2027.
Trade restrictions are adding to supply uncertainty. The Democratic Republic of Congo banned copper concentrate exports in August to encourage domestic processing, although exemptions could soften the immediate impact. The World Bank counted 147 restrictive measures affecting critical minerals through September, compared with 63 measures easing trade.
Higher copper prices may not translate directly into stronger mining profits. Energy, electricity and processing costs remain significant risks. The bank expects European power costs to constrain aluminium and zinc smelting, while disruption to Middle Eastern sulphur shipments could increase nickel-processing expenses in Indonesia.
The World Bank’s central warning is that copper’s price trajectory will depend not only on global demand and mine output, but also on where inventories are held and how governments shape trade flows. A global surplus, it suggests, can coexist with shortages in the markets that need the metal.