India’s Venezuela Critical Minerals Plan Faces Fresh Uncertainty After Maduro’s Exit

India’s interest in deeper investment ties with Venezuela’s emerging critical minerals sector is being reshaped by dramatic political developments in Caracas, where former President Nicolás Maduro was ousted in a U.S. operation, raising fresh questions about risk, sanctions and the future of bilateral cooperation in strategic resources such as lithium, nickel and rare earth elements.

Venezuela, long known for its vast oil reserves, has also been steadily promoting its nickel, iron ore, bauxite, coal, gold and critical minerals as strategic assets. A Rubix Data Science report earlier this week highlighted that these could support India’s ambitions to secure long-term supplies of raw materials essential for batteries, electric vehicles and clean-energy technologies.

However, the volatility of Venezuela’s political landscape is rapidly complicating investment calculations.

In an unprecedented U.S. military operation in early January, Maduro was removed from office and later appeared in U.S. federal court on drug trafficking and narco-terrorism charges, pleading not guilty. The dramatic intervention, condemned as a breach of sovereignty by some countries, has sparked both enthusiastic support and sharp criticism internationally.

Under Venezuela’s constitutional order, Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro’s vice-president and oil minister, was sworn in as interim president on Jan. 5, and has sought to maintain continuity in governance amid the turbulence.

Political Flux Clouds Investment

The Rubix report had underscored that deeper Indian investment would hinge “significantly on the direction and consistency of U.S. policy towards Venezuela, particularly with respect to sanctions enforcement and regulatory approvals.” Those uncertainties have now leapt to the forefront, with U.S. actions directly reshaping Venezuela’s leadership and foreign policy prospects.

India’s direct trade with Venezuela has contracted sharply in recent years. Venezuelan crude, once accounting for about 6.7% of India’s oil imports in FY2018, had fallen to around 0.3% in FY2026 (April–October 2025) as sanctions, payment risks and operational constraints throttled flows.

That backdrop complicates mineral-sector ambitions. While Indian firms like ONGC Videsh and Indian Oil maintain legacy hydrocarbon exposure through equity stakes in heavy-oil projects, new capital deployment into mining or critical mineral processing would require clarity on sanctions applicability, legal protections and currency repatriation mechanisms that can withstand Washington’s evolving approach.

“Any policy shift could directly impact these assets,” the report said, pointing to how sanctions and enforcement uncertainties have deterred deeper Indian participation even in the energy sector.

New Leadership, New Equations

Rodríguez’s government has signalled a more pragmatic attitude toward international cooperation — including with the U.S. — even as hardline factions within Venezuelan politics reject foreign influence. Human rights groups and Western observers have cautiously welcomed steps such as the release of political prisoners, seen as attempts at easing political tensions and encouraging investment interest.

Analysts say Rodríguez now faces a delicate balancing act: consolidating control at home, managing relations with Washington, and attracting foreign capital without alienating traditional allies such as China and Russia, which have deep stakes in Venezuela’s oil and mining sectors.

For India, the calculus is complex. On the one hand, Venezuela’s mineral potential aligns with New Delhi’s drive to diversify supply chains for critical minerals — a strategic priority as India accelerates its clean energy transition. On the other, U.S. dominance over Venezuela’s political transition and sanctions enforcement means Indian investors must navigate an evolving regulatory landscape where Washington’s interests could shape access to Venezuelan resources.

Geopolitical Risks and Strategic Stakes

While the Rubix report noted that Venezuela’s mineral reserves — including lithium and rare earths that are vital for batteries and high-tech manufacturing — constitute an opportunity, it stressed that “the trajectory of Indian investment will depend significantly on the direction and consistency of U.S. policy.” With U.S. oversight now overt in Caracas, India may find itself reassessing its approach to ensure any engagement in Venezuela’s mineral sector is sustainable and compliant with international norms.

Venezuela’s political upheaval has thus injected new urgency into discussions in New Delhi about risk mitigation, sanctions navigation and the broader geopolitics of critical mineral supply chains. As New Delhi weighs its options, investors and policymakers will be watching closely how Rodríguez’s interim government positions Venezuela’s strategic resources amid uncertainty in Caracas and beyond.

  india, maduro exit, rare earth plans, venezuela